sports betting winning strategy test

match safe for betting calculator

We bring you the best free bets for football from the leading bookmakers in the UK. We bring you the all the latest promotions for existing customers too. Make sure you come back daily to see off track betting metairie special free bets are available in the football world. With more than half the population of the world describing themselves as fans, football is the most popular sport in the world. The Premier League is the big boy of the soccer world, with a TV audience measured in billions of viewers. The majority of the bigger European leagues finish their seasons in May, taking a break for a few months. You can read more in our handy football betting guide here.

Sports betting winning strategy test sports betting websites reviews

Sports betting winning strategy test

Also, every casino or sportsbook has a betting limit on the amount they will accept that will almost certainly be reached before the gambler wins. This system requires you to bet a fixed amount on each bet. Proportional betting systems require betting a portion of your bankroll and then increasing your bets by that same percentage after each win. The Fibonacci sequence are numbers in the following sequence:. By definition, the first two numbers in the Fibonacci sequence are either 1 and 1, or 0 and 1, depending on the chosen starting point of the sequence, and each subsequent number is the sum of the previous two.

You lose. You lose again. Now you win. It earned as much in one risk than the other systems did in their first seven. However, this strategy is quickly eliminated on just the second round of betting. In our simulation of betting online, we lost 12 times in a row at round This shows how well fixed betting protects your winnings and thus ranks as one of our best betting systems.

For, a picture is worth a thousand words. Every bet was placed on even odds in favor of the heads. After bets the gambler ended being a winner by about 14 units, starting with units of cash. At one point, he was winning 19 units! What would you say about that? Would it be a good strategy if we bet on fair odds 2. Would the above chart be convincing about a possible profitability of a system where we place our bets blindfold on heads?

A loss of 11 units in the end, losing up to 15 units at one point! What went wrong? Really, could betting on coin tossing be that disastrous? However, this is not actually true. Account the second graph to be the extension of the first.

This is how it goes. In essence, this is a third bettor who placed their cash on bets. Even though in the first or so bets they are a winner, in the following they are constantly suffering losses, finally having their bankroll reach the breakeven point. Clearly, the three bettors experienced completely different outcomes, in random. What happens if 10 bettors make their bets on heads at odds of 2.

Do not forget that we are talking about a system that is defined by default to produce zero profit or loss. In the long run, the betting system always recovers out of extreme losses or profits. Each time we fail we lose a unit of our cash, which we retrieve the next time we are successful. Obviously, more others saw positive or negative results in-between. The same cunning strategy put to the test by bettors!

Now, what will be your opinion about the betting system? Treasure or trash? None obviously, because the main rule we explained above still applies. However, a number of bettors will stubbornly insist that this system is a winner, given they are up 50 units! It is not in random. We know that this method will bring neither profit nor loss. We could be lucky to enjoy some profit after bets but we could also be losing some of our capital just as easily. Yet, the most probable outcome will always tend towards the middle as expected: the perfect balance, the zero or breakeven point.

Judging by the chart above, this is the point where we may feel a bit grateful of not being unlucky…. Based on the above, let us proceed to what is most important at the end of the day, by discussing two distinct scenarios:. Of course, on both options we should bet on heads.

In the first case, we expect to win on 8 out of 10 tosses of the coin instead of 5 , while in the second we should win 2. Again, we deal with two options and two scenarios. This is not about a combination of the two, betting at 3. However, BOTH scenarios will result in the same outcome: our winrates are totally equal.

Check this by simply multiplying the odds of 2. The result is the same 1. Along these lines, this is the foundation of value betting. Given that our system in both these cases is a winner, let us monitor the performance of a bettor who makes a wager on either of these two betting systems. This is why we normally say:. Of course, this is phenomenal performance.


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The Martingale betting strategy is seen as a sure thing by some since a gambler with an unlimited bankroll will eventually win. Also, every casino or sportsbook has a betting limit on the amount they will accept that will almost certainly be reached before the gambler wins. This system requires you to bet a fixed amount on each bet. Proportional betting systems require betting a portion of your bankroll and then increasing your bets by that same percentage after each win.

The Fibonacci sequence are numbers in the following sequence:. By definition, the first two numbers in the Fibonacci sequence are either 1 and 1, or 0 and 1, depending on the chosen starting point of the sequence, and each subsequent number is the sum of the previous two. You lose. You lose again. Now you win. It earned as much in one risk than the other systems did in their first seven.

However, this strategy is quickly eliminated on just the second round of betting. In our simulation of betting online, we lost 12 times in a row at round In fact, you could apply the matched betting approach to just about any sport. As long as you can bet on all possible outcomes at the right price then it works. This becomes more obvious if we look at the example of football.

It should be even easier to win than it is with horse racing. After all, there are only three possible outcomes. Either one of the teams wins or it is a draw. The same principles apply as with horse racing. You need to find matches in which you can cover all possible results and still win. You are taking the unpredictability out of the sport by covering all of the bases. This might seem unlikely at first.

If one team is more highly rated than the other then it stands to reason that they will be at much shorter odds. Even with closely matched teams it seems unlikely that the bookies will get the figures wrong. Well, once again smart maths will help you to win in this way. The sports betting market is very competitive and bookies often offer tempting prices. With the right price for each outcome you can be sure of winning. Everton from earlier. Some bookies might have Chelsea as clear favourites.

Yet, what is just one of them has a special deal on the London team winning? With lay bets it becomes even easier than betting on every possible outcome. Instead of betting on Chelsea, Everton or a draw you start off with just one of them. So, you place your main bet as Chelsea winning. After doing that, the lay bet simply has be on Chelsea not winning.

It is clear that one of these bets is going to pay out. The key is in finding the odds that make this a worthwhile bet. The odds on both outcomes have to be in your favour. Opportunities like this are relatively few and far between but they do exist. This same betting strategy can also be used for other sports.

Whether you want to bet on tennis, basketball or any other sport, you can always win from now on. If you are open to betting on different sports then you will have more options to choose from. So far, we have seen that matched betting can be a great way of taking advantage of odds that work in your favour.

The best is yet to come, though. You see, the odds will only be stacked in your favour in a certain number of sporting events. The bookies only let a few opportunities like this slip through. Fortunately, there is another reason why this is the best sports betting strategy. This is the fact that you can use bookmaker bonus offers too. By using free bets and other offers you will find it far easier to win every time that you gamble.

For example, if you are given a free bet from one bookie then you could place it on a certain horse winning. You then place a lay bet on the opposite happening. Because you are using less of your own money it is easier to get the numbers to stack up. So why do bookies still offer deals like this? Surely they should be looking to stop this happening. The majority will place a bet in the traditional way and probably lose the free money.

If these free bets lost them too much money you can be sure that they would do something about it. Secondly, this is a hugely competitive market these days. There are plenty of different bookies around and they all want you to bet with them. Offering incentives helps them to retain more customers.

The number of bookies means that you are spoiled for choice when it comes to offers. As well as free bets for new players, there are also bonuses for regular gamblers as well as other promotions. Online casinos and bingo sites are other places where you can use special offers to make money with no risk. As we have seen, making the right bets comes down to maths rather than any knowledge of the sport. Does this mean that you need to be a maths genius to win with matched betting?

Perhaps you imagine having to spend all day with a calculator or a slide ruler? You can let some software do this for you, instead. Of course, it needs to be the right software if you want to win every time. So what should you be looking for? For a start, you need something that makes life easier for you rather than complicating it.

This means that you want software that it is easy to use from day one. Ideally, you will also see a good range of bets from a wide number of bookies. The more options you can see then the more you can win. You should also expect it to be clearly explained how much you can win depending upon the amount of your bet. This type of sports betting strategy depends upon making the right amount of bet in each case. If you get this wrong then it could turn into a losing bet rather than a guaranteed winner.

Good matched betting software will make it easy for you to find the right bets. It will then guide you smoothly through the whole process. In this way, you can start making money even if you have never gambled before in your life. By now we have seen why matched betting is the best spots betting strategy. This is a terrific way of winning money with no risk. We have also seen that using the right kind of betting software is crucial.

Yet, with a number of options around you may wonder how best to get started. What if you have never placed a bet before and want to get started easily? Many people who have never considered gambling are keen to do so once they find out about matched betting. The fact that you can use software to make life easier is a great start.

Therefore, it all comes down to making the right choice of tool to find and make your risk-free bets. Bearing all of this in mind, a terrific option for first-timers is Bonus Bagging. This site makes it incredibly simple for anyone to make their first moves in matched betting. It makes the whole process smooth and extremely easy to understand.

You will soon be placing your very first bets and making a profit from them. If you have any fears about how this strategy could work then Bonus Bagging will soon put them to rest.


To avoid confirmation bias and exposure to variance we increase the number of plays we test in each theory. Generally speaking, the best theories are the ones that are extremely specific with 5 or 6 elements in place. Building a theory is one of the most difficult elements; you can just pick up ideas from being very close to a sport.

For example, if you watch all NBA or NHL games you will likely have an idea of what tends to happen in certain situations. If players are injured or getting into specific high scoring or low scoring games. Although it might take hours to test you can profit for years.

We recommend starting by specialising in one sport or league. For example we specialise in the NHL. This is our bread and butter and what gives us a consistent profit each year. This funds the research into other sports and new theories. Scaling is very easy when you have a team in place which is what we will get onto now. Invest in your sports betting education and research. All Rights Reserved. By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies.

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this. Skip to content. Tom Buckland August 19, Share on facebook. Share on whatsapp. Share on twitter. Share on linkedin. This is why you often see sportsbooks giving individuals improved odds for accumulators.

Doing the maths we can say that if you win You will have lost Maths is scary. The issue arises when we need to make a high volume of bets with a high degree of confidence. The answer is to build a strategy and back-test where there have been profits in the past. You can then look at the upcoming events and see what events match your theories. Of course, this is assumed edge. Back-testing potential theories is the key to this. Remember it may cost to back-test a theory.

Here's a school lesson, back to haunt just kidding you. Luck will help you win every now and then, but not always. Remember, most sports bettors don't do any kind of research before they place their bets. This means that every incremental effort you put in analysis and background research will put you ahead of hundreds if not thousands of fellow sports bettors.

Here's the minimum that you can do, to begin with:- Understand the strategic aspects of the sports you are following for sports betting. Much like everything, sports betting is often overcomplicated. It's too tempting to explain all kinds of outcomes with all kinds of theories.

You'd do well to distance yourself from non-value adding analysis and theorization. Selection bias, model over fitting, and over optimization among others are cardinal sins of sports betting that can hurt your chances. Instead, be confident of your strategy, and give it time to yield results.

Of course, you'd need to keep monitoring outcomes and doing course corrections, without significantly altering your core strategy. Do not fixate on numbers. A simple strategy backed by intuitive logic is your strongest asset. Take it from us, you will never be too far from a sports betting website that will sell you a dummy.

Sadly, there is a lot going around in the cyber-sphere that can disrupt the activities of straight thinking sports betting enthusiasts. Websites try to lure bettors by floating unrealistic bonuses and special promotions, only to cut them a shady deal later on. The thumb rule to remember is — background research.

Sports betting is exciting, rewarding, and entertaining. Adopt all these basic tips and tactics, and you will not only enjoy sports betting more, but will also earn more from your adventures, and will stay safe and secure from scammers. Remember, sports betting is best managed on strong grounds of financial discipline, and must be backed by your willingness to invest time and thought in bettering your understanding of sports.

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