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To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind. If you have had too much to drink, it is in your best interest to stay away from the betting window. Be sure to get set up with our weekly NBA picks for guaranteed winners each and every day. Sports betting tip 4 - Do your Homework As a bettor, you have the advantage of streamlining your research, which is something the sports books are not at liberty to do.
The best way to win money betting sports is to develop a niche and follow it closely. If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.
Sports betting tip 5 - Check the Odds Some sports books have better odds on parlays and teasers. When you are betting big bucks the difference in odds translate into a huge difference in your payout. All it takes is a little research of the sports books you usually bet at. Most books have their payout odds listed in way that is easy for the bettor to find them. It should be noted that we advise against playing parlays and teasers for the most part.
Especially anything over a 2-teamer. Sports betting tip 6 - Play Home Dogs There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home. Teams play inspired ball at home. Slim underdogs regularly win outright. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd. Sports betting tip 7 - Bet at the Right Time The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early. Squares usually bet later in the day or week, for football and they tend to pick the favorites.
If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the Pros are laying heavy money on the points. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.
There are many other important factors when it comes to beating the books. Many people don't have the time to study things like: statistics, line moves, game analysis, team trends, situational trends, Historical angles, valuable lines, inflated numbers on public teams, etc. If this is your situation, there is help available to you. There are many fine sports handicapping services available. Like a good stockbroker handicapping services can advise you where to invest your money in order to limit your losses and increase your winning percentage.
As with any industry there are the good and the bad. We must confess that our industry has gotten somewhat of a black eye. The handicapping business has been flooded with rip-offs, "boiler room" sales offices and those recorded free pick phones that get your phone number so that one of their high pressure salesman can call back and hound you on a daily basis. These services are often skilled in marketing but know little when in comes to handicapping.
This is not in your best interest. Be careful of services offering different levels of picks. Diamond, Gold, Silver based on the idea the more you pay, the better the picks will be. The question will always remain.
Why wouldn't you give everyone your best picks? Why give out the lower level of picks at all? At Doc's, we have only one set of picks for one fair price, no matter what size of player you are. It's very important that whether you use our service, another service, or handicap on your own that you do your homework and always remember that this is a marathon and not a sprint. The bottom line is to win more that you lose, and that's what has kept us in business since Be sure to check out our top navigation bar.
We hope these sports betting tips will help out but most importantly be patient, have some fun and enjoy the experience. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports. Remember to check each of the handicapper's individual pages under the "expert handicappers" dropdown on top of our homepage for free picks and information.
Also read our sports betting system as well as our sports handicapping advice page and our commitment to our clients page - click here. Kiev is also the owner and lead author for The Odds Breakers. The Odds Breakers has free and premium picks for most sports betting markets, as well as a sports betting podcast.
We are currently in the wake of the legalization of sports betting across the United States and there is no better time than right now to go over some of the key disciplines to become or remain a successful sports investor. Even the best players in this business have to remind themselves to stay disciplined and play with diligence to remain profitable rather than picking random sides just for the gambling fix while tilting after a bad day.
The biggest mistakes that people make are betting past their limitations, playing for a need, and doing it with a much larger expectation. Any of those 3 mistakes make sports betting not only not fun, but they also make is much more consequential and irresponsible.
The reason that people should sports bet is because of their love of sports more than their love of money. The great thing about sports betting is that you do not have to have a fan interest in either team for the game to be fun to watch and meaningful. Wagering on sports is the ultimate game within the game. Sports Betting is a marathon and definitely not a sprint so take off your seat belt, relax and enjoy the long ride.
Some people come into sports betting with the misconception that it is easy to make a living doing it, they do not follow best practices making the game turn into playing roulette. The 10 in the is the sportsbook's take on your bet and also called the juice or the vig. The juice is how sportsbooks draw a profit in every single balanced line. For the books, it all evens out in the end. But wait! No, it is actually half of that at 4.
Think of it as the total amount risked vs. Barely enough for a months rent but still nice to be up So as you can see, sports betting for most people should be something done for incremental income or a long term investment rather than something one can expect to rely on as a main source of income. Being over If the average vig is only 2. We will discuss implied odds, and estimated odds later in this article.
If you do it right, you can win and beat these books! After you read your sportsbook reviews and follow the best practices in book selection, it is time to select where you want to spend your time shopping. One huge mistake that public bettors make is that they only choose just one sportsbook when there are many reasons to have multiple options. Using multiple books gives the sports bettor an extra edge from not only shopping the lines and getting the best numbers, but also it helps tell them that new information is out such as an injury that just has been made public or a large betting syndicate's interest in a number.
Every half point matters in this business in the long run so please do not sell yourself short. Some of the best bettors in the world can go on a streak of winning or more bets in a row, and at the same time, they could lose or more in a row. These streaks are unpredictable so who is to say that it won't happen right when they start the betting season. When things are going bad, do take a couple of days or a week whatever you need off occasionally.
Trying to force plays is when most public players get sunk. They try to make it all back the next day over and over again. It deviates them from what they originally set out to do and it usually ends badly. Like I stated earlier, you must remember the huge variances that exists in games. Even if you have a huge value on a game with a great number, it doesn't mean that you necessarily are going to win that bet.
This method is especially important if you plan on betting consistently throughout the whole season. I know these bet sizes sound small but we must remember that sports betting based on your own plays should be for pure recreation or long term investment and you should not put yourself in a situation that can be detrimental. Don't pay attention to what people say or what people are doing. The amount of money that you place on your bets is literally none of anyone else's business.
Trust me when I say that it is much more enjoyable to not let a losing week phase your state of mind than bragging about how big your bets are. In order to keep this fun and less stressful, you must incorporate these disciplines.
Your average bet size should be around units during your season. Using this system based upon your numbers which are the estimated odds compared to the implied odds from the sportsbooks. The larger the discrepancy the larger the bet. Only use discretionary money in your savings, meaning if it all goes bye bye, then it will not affect your family, credit, happiness, and lifestyle. In most sports, and especially American ones, there are certain key numbers that have more value to you and more risk to the sportsbooks unless properly accounted for.
The reason for this is because final scores tend to end on certain numbers more than they do on others due to the way the game is played and scored. Being that there are so few points scored in Hockey, and especially in soccer, the smaller numbers are much more valuable and expensive to buy on and off of. An example of buying on or off of a number is paying the sportsbook 25 cents on the dollar to move from a -5 to a Football key numbers are definitely the most significant due to how the game is scored and the amount of points scored per game.
Being that most scoring is increments of 3 and 7, those two key numbers are definitely the most common, for example, games ending with final scores of or The key numbers in order of significance in the NFL are 3, 7, 10, 6, 14 and 4. Below is a sample taken from a sample from an article on Sports Insights of 2, NFL football games from to and here are the results which can be used as predictive probabilities that future NFL games end on these margins of victory or as we call them spreads.
Being that key numbers are more prominent, and games end landing on these denominations more than not, the price to buy on or off of them is higher. To buy off of a 3 in NFL football it will cost you 25 cents on the dollar and to buy off of a 12 it will cost only 10 cents but that does not make it a good decision necessarily. Also keep in mind that in college football, the percentages on key numbers are not quite as large as the NFL due to a larger variation in final scores.
I comprised a chart of implied winning percentages based on the spread below for NFL football. These numbers are called implied odds because it is based on an implied spread from the sportsbooks. Remember that we have to be correct on our bets on average over This means that bets with an expected value of over As you see from the chart below, moving from a 0 to a 1 is a much smaller change in winning percentage than going from a If your number is at on a game and the book's number is a , then it would not be a smart play to make since it only adds 1.
However, if the line moves to a As long as there isn't many outliers injuries, trends or bad spots this could be a play. The larger your deviation from When it comes to key numbers, you should always at least look to bet both sides and I can explain later in this article. I can probably write multiple books on sports betting methods and systems, but I will try and keep it short for the sake of this article. When discussing this section it is important to define what a sports bettor is and what a handicapper is.
A sports bettor is simply someone who bets on sports and a handicapper is someone who assigns advantage through numbers in order to even the odds of the outcome in a game. You do not have to be a handicapper to bet on sports and you do not have to bet on sports to be a handicapper, although being good at both certainly helps your chances of becoming profitable.
Handicappers have a framework or a methodology of coming up with a number for their estimated odds to assign against the spread on a game. In sports like football and basketball, the most common way that good handicappers come up with a line or a spread is using predictive power ratings.
Power Ratings are a system to develop a handicap in a game by ranking all the teams in one league from worst to first with a number assigned to that team representing the denomination on how my points better or worse they are from their peers. For example, if the Patriots are playing the Dallas Cowboys, you can predict the difference in points that the game will finish at.
Say the Patriots are a 6. If this game is being played on a neutral field like in London, your line on the game would be the Patriots favored by 5. If the sportsbook line is the Patriots favored by 7 and there are no injuries, trends, bad matchups or bad spots to account for, you might bet the Cowboys here based on the fact that you are coming off of a key number and went past the 6.
According to my chart above, you would have at least 4. In football and in basketball there are also points assigned for home-field advantage. Each home field has its own number based on past performances but usually, it is about 3 points and rarely over 3. This means that if the Bears are playing the Packers in Chicago, and both teams are rated equal, then the Bears would be favored by 3 points and if the game was in Green Bay, the Packers would be favored by 3 points.
The Handicappers that set lines for the sportsbooks factor this in just as you should when coming up with your number. There are many different methods and ways that people use to create power ratings and nobody ever wants to give up the recipe to their secret sauce. In general, power ratings are created by a handicapper who assigns numbers to certain aspects of a team. In order to create your own power ratings, you will have to have a vast knowledge of each team while updating your numbers on a daily basis.
Creating and constantly keeping up on your own power ratings takes up a whole lot of your free time. For College football, this could take up 3 or 4 hours of every Sunday morning during the season. If you haven't tried to do this before, or you are pressed for time, I highly recommend using somebody else's power ratings that are reputable.
At least this way you can get your number without having to take a ton of time to put in the work and instead focus more on individual match-ups and situation spots. If you want to eventually start making power ratings yourself, you can use these public power rating numbers and compare them to your own.
You can find these updated during the season early every week on their respective websites. It is important to ask yourself if you trust yourself more than companies that do this for a living. Even the best handicappers compare their power ratings in case they missed something. After you get your power rated number, you next have to look at things like injuries, individual match-ups, situational spots, and trends.
When it comes to injuries, it definitely matters who it is at what positions in order to deduct the appropriate amount of points for each sport. In football, it might take three starting offensive lineman to be listed as out in order to affect your power rating by 1 point, yet when it comes to quarterbacks, you may have to adjust your power rating by up to even 11 points depending on who it is.
For example, Deshawn Watson over the last two years was worth 8 to 10 points to the line and that was made obvious when he didn't play. When factoring in injuries, we also must remember to give back points depending on how good the backup player is to that position. Laveon Bell could have been a larger difference when he sat out for the Steelers last season if it wasn't for the good play of James Connor.
Looking at individual match-ups is also very important to a handicap. You might have two teams power rated very closely together, but one of those teams might be great on offense and pass-defense but so bad against the run that they will rarely possess the ball and get clocked most of the game without being able to stop the other team that can rush the ball. Looking at these match-ups may not only take you off of a play, but it also can swing you so much that you start to like the other side of the play betting on the other team.
Remember that sportsbooks, just like you, also may have factored in the match-up adjustment to these lines so make sure to always question your number and compare your results with your sharper peers.
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